Analyst Says Gold and Bitcoin Move Independently, Calls Rotation Theory Into Question

A recent analysis finds that gold and Bitcoin do not exhibit a stable correlation across market cycles and often move independently, with gold acting as a risk-off asset and Bitcoin behaving as risk-on in many periods ^[1].

The same report challenges the popular 'rotation' narrative that capital mechanically shifts from gold into Bitcoin when precious metals peak, saying historical data do not support such a straightforward flow of funds ^[1].

Some market veterans contend the divergence has intensified valuation debates: Bill Miller, among others, argues Bitcoin remains far below fair value despite gold’s rally, framing Bitcoin’s price action as evidence of an independent monetary role and long-term potential ^[2].

The divergence is occurring alongside a notable commodities upswing—an AI model flagged further upside after gold surged to record levels near $5,000, and silver has seen large moves that have drawn broader macro attention ^[3][4].

Analysts and investors should treat gold and Bitcoin as distinct instruments rather than assume direct capital rotation between them; ongoing rallies in precious metals add context but do not, by themselves, prove a predictable flow into crypto ^[1][2][3].