Strong jobs data, split forecasts and on‑chain capitulation cloud Bitcoin outlook

A stronger‑than‑expected US jobs report shook markets and raised questions about near‑term downside for Bitcoin, with coverage noting the potential for BTC to test lower levels amid the move in risk assets ^[1].

Institutional and private forecasts diverge sharply: Standard Chartered revised down its cryptocurrency outlook and said Bitcoin could fall to around $50,000 before recovering, while Anthony Scaramucci publicly predicted a much higher $150,000 target for BTC, underscoring split views among market participants ^[3][2].

On‑chain indicators point to heavy selling: CryptoQuant’s BCMI metric plunged into the low 0.2 range—levels linked to early bear phases in prior cycles—and analysts described the market as remaining in a capitulation phase even as accumulation historically follows such periods ^[4][5].

Broader macro stress adds to crypto volatility: the World Uncertainty Index reached markedly elevated levels compared with 2008‑era readings, a development observers say can exacerbate pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin amid the recent jobs shock ^[6][1].

Taken together, the stronger jobs data, wide divergence in price forecasts and on‑chain capitulation signals create an uncertain short‑term outlook for Bitcoin; the market currently shows both technical and macro signals consistent with further downside risks as well as longer‑term recovery scenarios cited by some analysts ^{[1][3][2][4][5]}.