Hayes: Fed Backstop for Japan Bond Market Could Lift Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes warned that a weakening yen and rising Japanese government bond yields could prompt Japanese investors to sell U.S. Treasuries, creating cross‑market stress that may prompt central bank intervention ^[1].

Hayes argued that stealth Federal Reserve support to stabilize Japan’s bond market — effectively ‘printing’ dollars — would increase dollar liquidity and could weaken the U.S. dollar index (DXY), a move he says would mechanically lift Bitcoin and other major crypto assets ^[3][5].

The views were set out in Hayes’s recent commentary and were picked up across crypto media; Hayes has framed the scenario as a ‘Woomph’ risk in a Substack post describing macro fragility in Japan’s markets ^[4][1].

Media coverage notes Hayes’s thesis as a conditional market scenario — if the Fed were to provide backstop liquidity for Japan, Hayes expects that mechanism could be favorable for Bitcoin — but outcomes depend on actual policy actions and market responses ^[1][3][5].