CoinShares: Quantum Computing a Manageable Long-Term Risk to Bitcoin

CoinShares frames quantum computing as a long-term engineering challenge for Bitcoin rather than an immediate crisis, noting that while future quantum machines could theoretically target ECDSA and Schnorr signatures using Shor’s algorithm, current technology is not capable of doing so and the threat is not urgent ^[1][4][2].

The report quantifies the gap between present-day quantum hardware and what would be needed to break Bitcoin cryptography, estimating cryptographically relevant quantum computers would require orders of magnitude more qubits — roughly 100,000 times more powerful than today’s machines — and are unlikely to appear before the 2030s, according to CoinShares’ assessment ^[3][1].

CoinShares also highlights limited near-term exposure — noting a relatively small amount of BTC in legacy-address types that would be immediately vulnerable — and emphasizes that upgrade paths and mitigations are available, making the risk manageable given the multi-year timeline ^[3][1][4].

In sum, CoinShares advises monitoring quantum development and planning protocol or key-management upgrades, but does not regard quantum computing as an immediate market or network threat ^[1].