JPMorgan Says Clarity Act Could Drive H2 Upside as Stablecoin Talks Stall

JPMorgan analysts told clients that the CLARITY Act — a bill intended to set formal rules for digital assets in the U.S. — could be signed into law by mid‑year and, if enacted, might be a major catalyst for a second‑half 2026 recovery in U.S. crypto markets ^[1][2].

Progress toward that outcome has slowed: the White House’s March 1 deadline to resolve a standoff over stablecoin yield between banks and crypto firms expired without a deal, leaving key provisions unresolved and putting institutional capital plans at risk ^[4].

Senate leaders and committee staff are preparing new CLARITY Act markup attempts while banks, crypto firms and administration officials continue negotiations over stablecoin yield, but sources say no clear solution has emerged yet ^[6][3].

Despite policy uncertainty, major financial institutions are continuing crypto infrastructure builds — for example, recent moves by Morgan Stanley and Citi signal continued institutional commitment to custody, wallets and related services ^[5].

The timing and market impact of the CLARITY Act now hinge on resolving the stablecoin yield dispute; JPMorgan’s mid‑year expectation remains a potential upside scenario but the legislative path is still uncertain ^[1][4][6].