Goldman Sachs delays first Fed rate cut to September 2026, citing Iran conflict; markets and crypto reassess

Goldman Sachs has pushed its forecast for the first U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate cut to September 2026, pointing to the Iran war as a risk that could elevate headline inflation and delay Fed easing ^{[1] [2]}.

Market coverage and analysts say the later cut timetable could put pressure on risk assets; crypto markets reacted cautiously, with reports noting Bitcoin steadied after the revision as investors reassessed timing for monetary easing ^{[2] [3]}.

Observers highlight that geopolitical factors — including potential oil and shipping disruptions related to the Iran conflict — are cited as contributors to persistent inflationary pressure that could complicate the Fed's decision-making timeline ^{[4] [1]}.

Market participants will watch inflation readings and energy-market developments for signals on when the Fed might begin cutting rates, which would influence risk asset performance including cryptocurrencies ^{[1] [4]}.