Matt Hougan: $1M Bitcoin plausible if global store-of-value market expands and BTC wins modest share

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argued in a recent memo that a common error in valuing bitcoin is using “static math” for a market that expands over time, which makes seven‑figure price targets appear more extreme than they are under a dynamic view of capital allocation to store‑of‑value assets ^[1][6].

Hougan linked a $1 million-per-coin outcome to bitcoin capturing a material slice of the multi‑trillion‑dollar store‑of‑value market; coverage of his memo noted different modeling assumptions and market sizes, with some outlets citing a $38 trillion store‑of‑value market and others outlining scenarios that assume broader market growth or larger aggregate pools of store‑of‑value capital ^[2][3][4][5].

His analysis has drawn attention across crypto press, which described the outlook as achievable under “reasonably conservative” assumptions about market expansion and bitcoin’s share of safe‑haven assets, and said the timeline could span years to a decade if historical trends persist ^[6][1][4].

Hougan’s central point is methodological: forecasts that treat the store‑of‑value market as fixed understate bitcoin’s upside if that market grows and bitcoin captures part of the expanding pool of capital ^[1][6].