Bitcoin near $79K as Wintermute says drawdowns are milder and Middle East-linked oil pushes $78K test

Bitcoin was reported to be holding near $79,200, after its deepest current-cycle loss was described as about 50% and the rebound left it roughly 37% below the October 2025 record ^[1].

Crypto trading firm Wintermute said Bitcoin’s latest downturn appears less severe than prior bear markets, citing that BTC was about 50% below its peak 340 days after the top versus losses above 75% at the same stage in 2018 and 2022, while also stating it did not confirm that June was the final low ^[2].

Separately, multiple reports said BTC struggled to hold around the $78K area, with one outlet attributing the move to Middle East instability and higher oil prices, including WTI climbing close to $95 per barrel and Brent testing $100 ^[3].

CryptoPotato reported that Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said BTC’s Balanced Price was near $38,400, while also noting that historical evolution does not necessarily mean prices must return to that level ^[4].

CryptoNews reported that Elon Musk-backed Grok AI predicted BTC could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026 and potentially hit $250,000 by January 1, 2027, adding that the model pointed to prior cycles showing diminishing percentage returns as market cap grows and said the presence of ETFs and larger institutional ownership could affect upside and extremes compared with retail-driven eras ^[5].