Galaxy Research slashes CLARITY Act 2026 odds to 10% as Senate talks stall

Galaxy Research has cut its forecast for the U.S. Senate passing the CLARITY Act in 2026 to a 10% chance, citing unresolved issues and compressed timing as lawmakers approach a September return. Multiple reports attribute the change to stalled Senate negotiations, including remaining debate over ethics provisions and other provisions that have not been resolved ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}.

The reports also point to a regulatory environment where, in the absence of a completed congressional outcome, the SEC and CFTC may continue moving independently, potentially creating temporary coverage via exemptions while broader legislation remains uncertain. Galaxy’s assessment highlights additional sticking points including stablecoin yield-related questions and uncertainty around developer protections ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}.

With the Senate clock running short, the latest Galaxy-related estimates place the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds at 10%, driven by unresolved policy disputes and legislative calendar constraints ^{[1] [2] [3]}.